Published: March 24, 2008
Critics of newspapers say that part of
the problem is that the industry has lost its ability to surprise. Tell
that to the guys who have just bought in.
“The news business is something worse than horrible. If that’s the future, we don’t have much of a future,” Sam Zell, who bought the Tribune Company last year, said recently in The Baltimore Sun.
“I’m an optimist, but it is very hard to be positive about what’s going
on,” said Brian P. Tierney, who bought The Philadelphia Inquirer and
The Philadelphia Daily News in 2006.
“The near term and medium
term at the paper is more negative than what we expected,” said OhSang
Kwon of Avista Capital Partners, which bought The Minneapolis
Star-Tribune in late 2006.
These are all smart businesspeople,
with significant success in other endeavors, who took a hard look at
the wave-tossed publishing sector and appointed themselves as life
savers. And very soon after jumping in, they too began foundering in
the tall waves.
On Thursday, it was reported in Crain’s New
York Business that Mr. Zell has put Newsday, one of Tribune’s more
lucrative assets, on the auction block. In January, Mr. Tierney told
unions at his papers that the company was confronting a “dire
situation” and needed to cut expenses by 10 percent to meet debt
payments.
And in Minneapolis last week, the paper’s publisher,
Chris Harte, met with union leaders to discuss a “precipitous” drop in
revenue that will make it difficult for the company to meet its
obligations, according to MinnPost, a daily news site.
The
industry may not be touching bottom any time soon. Last year, overall
newspaper revenues dropped by about 7 percent, pushed along primarily
by the secular change of readers and advertisers fleeing to the Web.
And publishing, along with many other kinds of businesses, is now
staring at a full-bore recession, led by the credit crisis that is
fanning out across the economy.
Staple the secular and
cyclical changes together and most newspapers will be staring at
double-digit drops in revenue: one analyst I talked to put the figure
at 15 percent. It’s clear from their rhetoric and recent moves that
highly leveraged players like Mr. Tierney, the partners in Avista and Mr. Zell will have a tough time meeting their obligations.
Rick
Edmonds, a business analyst at the Poynter Institute and one of the
authors of a new report, “State of the News Media 2008,” from the
Project for Excellence in Journalism, thinks this year will be a doozy.
“You
already were looking at more of the same, which has not been good, and
now with the potential of a recession, you are looking at the
possibility of double-digit declines in earnings and revenues,” he
said. “This is a year when some of the newer players may be
hard-pressed to pay the bankers.”
Even if he is in a bit of a
spot, why would Mr. Zell consider letting go of Newsday, once
considered a prized asset? It might be because it is one of the few
newspapers that will bring a decent number in the current market.
Newsday,
with its relative monopoly on Long Island, and proximity to the New
York market, has a rare kind of strategic value. It could benefit from
the contentious tabloid battle between Rupert Murdoch of the News Corporation (you knew we’d get around to him, didn’t you?), the publisher of The New York Post, and Mortimer B. Zuckerman, who owns The Daily News. Cablevision has also expressed interest in Newsday, and Gannett, which owns a ring of papers north of New York City, may yet get involved.
Mr. Murdoch, still in the midst of getting his arms around his $5 billion purchase of The Wall Street Journal,
apparently retains an appetite for both newspapers and the competition
that has historically been part of the industry. Newspapers, for all of
their new media rhetoric, remain primarily a manufacturing industry,
and a joint operating agreement with Newsday would allow huge savings
in terms of printing and distribution, helping to stem the chronic red
ink at The New York Post.
Mr. Zuckerman has a low tolerance for
losing money, indeed, a low tolerance for losing at anything (I’ve had
the misfortune of confronting him at Ping-Pong). He will not stand by
while Mr. Murdoch tries to bear-hug The Daily News out of existence.
There
will be enormous regulatory hurdles, but the gunfight will be fun to
watch, in part because it may be one of the last big fights for a
newspaper. Absent a strategic or ego-driven impulse, few people or
businesses will be lining up to get involved in print publishing.
“The
transactions by financial buyers have been disasters, so there has to
be a strategic aspect for any newspaper deal to make sense,” said Peter
Appert, a media analyst at Goldman Sachs.
“The painful realities of newspaper economics, which are tough to
discern from the outside, become very obvious to the buyers after the
fact.”
Publishing has been through some deep recessions before
and has cut costs to maneuver through, but this time staffs have
already been cut to the bone. The San Jose Mercury News has cut its
staff by more than half since 2000. At many papers, foreign bureaus are
gone, movie critics have dropped away and statehouse reporters are a
thing of a past.
Newspapers continue to gain on the Web in part
because they have the best talent, the biggest news hole and the most
comprehensive coverage. But that value, which gave many papers their
near-monopoly, could be wiped out by a sustained downturn.
According
to the “State of the News Media” report, the extensive cuts across the
industry will cripple any potential rebound as newspapers lose
authority and franchises in their markets.
Mr. Appert remains
confident that quality newspapers with a good grip on their audiences
will find a way to remain in business through a combination of online
and off-line revenues, even if the historically high margins will
appear only in the rearview mirror.
John Morton, a longtime
newspaper analyst, is more pessimistic. “The industry is meeting these
challenges by cutting, by reducing the news hole and the people who
fill it,” he said.
“Newspapers have lived through recessions
before and come back strong,” he added. “My worry is that when things
do turn around, they will be coming back in an environment that is more
competitive than ever because of the Internet, and that after all these
cuts, they will have less stature, less product quality and less talent
— all of the things that they need to compete.”
While I was on
the line with Mr. Morton, I mentioned that we had been talking about
newspapers on and off for over a decade. That makes us almost friends,
I said. But we are fast becoming the kind of friends who see each other
only at funerals and wakes.
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